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American letter of XueChong column
Recently the state council satisfactorly large planes resolution, caused whether China suit to make big planes discussion. Mount big planes reason is obvious. First, the civil aviation market is huge, lucrative,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], especially China economic development momentum value, will become one of the largest market for big planes. So block fat, how can you to others? Second, China is the world ShuDeZhao economic power, big planes and strategic strong industry,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], can we in this area set aside a blank, let euramerican monopoly? In China's current economic strength, if focus resources, spelling scale advantage, possibly in this market partake.
These two reasons, all is untenable. Yes, Chinese military aircraft had been exported,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], but military aircraft market than economic competition, but rather political competition. Many countries for political reasons not developed countries aircraft, to Chinese military industry provides opportunities. Civil aviation is completely different, has been highly globalization, as long as pay basically you can buy aircraft, forming the winner armored situation. No first-class technical level,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], big planes in the market simply untenable.
Now Boeing and airbus market advantages, there are profound historical roots, China cannot follow suit. For example, America's civil aviation technology and military a close relationship. Especially during the cold war and the Soviet union competition, stimulate produced by leaps and bounds. Soviet military industry is highly centralized national resource monopoly enterprises, technical strictly confidential, cannot turn civil. The more developed, military civilian industry is the lack of resources,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], which is also the backward. America's military industry is by folk management, open competition. These folk enterprise because there are defense substantial order, can big bet investment and development, and the tips of military technology flirted civil. Boeing, which USES the jet fighter jet engine developed. This technology advantage, accumulate over the decades, reached the monopoly, only Europe to focus resources fight. Japan has not powerful military industry, in this respect also dare not sold one.
I have repeatedly pointed out, Japan is the second industrial powers, in many core industries all don't let euramerican even more powerful, only in the airline to abandon competition. Here, also have historical reasons. Japan before world war ii had fairly advanced aviation industry, the zero type fighter was americans most fear of aerial enemy. The postwar Japan to let us rest assured, freewill give up that threatened strategic industry. Today, Japan is no longer America's threats, also begin to play up the idea of civil aviation. However, in this respect, not from their early first emerged out of the military aircraft, but Honda motor company production of small airliner, to capture is the United States in the past dozens of years more and more fire "air taxi" and the private plane of the market. Honda use oneself in private cars on excellent brand and technology, in five or six people in the small aircraft stole to deprive a person. Anyhow, Japan is in englishtown occupy the market place gradually, after devise big planes market, to avoid the peterborough competition.
Japan in civil aviation of strategic suggests that even first-class industrial powers, holds many would-be technology, also dare not adventure "beard the lion in his den", in others' advantage projects competition. Somebody else every step of economic strategy and was built on the mutant technology and market of the above analyses. It was like a ping-pong country should not take basketball championship as simple as the Olympic strategy. We develop big planes, advantage in where? If you can't answer the question, how can put huge investment?
China in the world industrial competition will have an advantage, will be based on his way of life. Imitate others way of life to develop products, only DongShiXiaoPin, always lag far behind. For example,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], private cars represents the American way of life, and corporate America must practice and understanding of this way of life than our deep, natural than we know more about how to provide product this way of life. Big planes also is such.
The United States and China although land area quite, but the United States either from the east coast to Hawaii, or from Florida to Alaska, homeland span is far beyond China. Especially its economic focus on the things on both sides, meantime distance is basically Beijing to guangzhou twice. Besides the U.S. population density low,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], not suitable for mass of railway passenger. This also no wonder, in the airline industry, us rise rapidly shrinking of railway transportation, railway, a hundred years ago, most discarded. And the railway after abandoning, which in turn strengthens of airplane dependence. By contrast, China's economic focus on the land side narrow coastal area, there are major passenger distance between north and south, something between commercial passenger distance is relatively short. Besides, China's population density is great, depending on the type of railway passenger plane is much bigger than, more suitable for the Chinese way of life. From this point of view, civil aviation as for China, rather than to the United States so important.
Actually,p90x Low-flying will be relinquished private aircr, if we put the big aircraft to the markets, the question is simpler: which company wants to build large plane is to build. Created to sell draw back line, don't sell will go bankrupt. Or the big planes plan hurled into the stock market, who love to buy the shares could buy, later lost earned all own responsible country, why should worry? As it is, the state administrative means concentration using so many resources, its logic is nothing but "you big country, you have me too, I also want to have" patriotic fervor ambition, no technology and market according to the reality. Now China's strong growth by a quarter of a century, the country's resources increase greatly, the big powers of mind filled with media, many people make similar mistakes feer, the temptation of big. In contrast, railway transportation technology, private enterprise investment threshold was relatively low some, in the Chinese market and happier. I see, instead of doing big planes dream, the government still is inferior to provide preferential policies, guiding non-governmental enterprises compete in high-speed railway.